• Futures studies is a very prominent field in Finland and Singapore, albeit in different ways.

• In Thailand, futures studies are a new field that needs to be widely publicized. More information can be accessed through the e-book “Futures Studies” linked here: https://www.tsri.or.th/th/knowledge/publication

Currently, the global community is facing highly uncertain changes. At the moment, the most apparent and pressing change of all is the COVID-19 global pandemic that has completely transformed society as we know it, accompanied by a new way of living that has people wearing face masks and carrying out social distancing. This is an example of an unexpected event that has caught society unaware.

Therefore, it is crucial that we, as a society, are prepared to deal with unexpected scenarios. As members of the global community, we all need to be able to understand the changes, make connections between factors, build knowledge and develop tools that can help us understand and manage the future through futures studies or futurology. The field of futures studies is a way to overcome the boundaries of traditional knowledge structures and engage in an interdisciplinary and holistic study. It utilizes different disciplines – philosophy, methodology, concepts, and theories of changes – to create a unified system based on logical knowledge and imagination.

For these reasons, futures studies are crucial for stakeholders and policymakers when forecasting the futures and designing the path forward for public policy after the COVID-19 pandemic.

On June 17, 2020, the Institute for Public Policy and Development (IPPD) and Thailand Science Research and Innovation (TSRI) hosted the special webinar “Utilizing Futures Studies in the Transforming World” to serve as a forum for discussion and knowledge exchange about futures studies. Futures studies are a way to foresee the futures through using various theories and interdisciplinary knowledge. Additionally, there is the launch of the “Futures Studies” book, which was synthesized from “A Review of the State of Knowledge in Futures Studies” research project that was supported by TSRI.

What are Futures Studies?

As the head of the research project, Assoc. Prof. Apiwat Ratanawaraha, Ph.D., from Faculty of Architecture, Chulalongkorn University, gave the overview of futures studies as a field that focuses on creating theories, principles, and methods of understanding and navigating the futures. Foresight is a basic tool that can develop and evolve with new knowledge and societal conditions.

Figure 1: The inequality to the recognized and access futures is the origin of many social problems. For a long time, social activists have been increasing access and encouraging everyone to imagine futures. The public’s involvement in the foresight process is crucial if we do not want a repeat of the predictable and limited forecasts done previously by forecasters and technocrats.

ASSOC. PROF. APIWAT RATANAWARAHA (PH.D.), Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Architecture, Chulalongkorn University

Futures studies became a coherent study during World War 1, when military needed to strategize and plan futures to win against their enemies. The brainstorming processes created a way to systematically forecast the future through accurate data.

In its conception, futures studies was based on forecasts and empirical evidence. Soon, the knowledge from other fields such as economics and social sciences were also integrated into the processes. The discipline further evolved, by developing broader, critical methodologies that take into account the environment and the evolution of mankind.

Recently, it is increasingly debated among futurists argued that foresight should not be limited to expert opinions and it should involve the general public. Similarly, foresight should not simply be regarded as part of sociology, but should be adaptable to other disciplines as well. And as seen in many countries, foresight is now integrating in big data, machine learning and artificial intelligence into its process.

Why do we need futures studies?

Assoc. Prof. Chanathip Pharino, Ph.D., Director of Future Strategy and Initiative Program Division, TSRI, revealed that the “Futures Studies” book was written because TRSI realized the importance of futures studies. It is a discipline that can influence many research and development programs that guide the formulation of public policy.

More importantly, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Chanathip asserted that it was a necessity to make futures studies education more accessible to the general public. Nowadays, the methodology of futures studies is still limited to academic circles, and she hopes that the research will help develop “human capital” in this field of study. This is achieved to the publication of “Futures Studies” book and university course on the subject.

Figure 2: It is necessary to develop and promote futures studies to the general public to understand and access. Futures studies has been developed for a long time but it is still known in limited circles, thus it should be promoted to a wider audience. Our goals is to develop the science of futures studies and future research so it can be put to good use.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Chanathip Pharino, Director of Future Strategy and Initiative Program Division, TSRI

Professor Mingsarn Kaosa-ard, Ph.D., the Director of Public Policy Studies Institute Foundation (PPSI) and project leader for “Khon Thai 4.0”, described the connection between the project and futures studies as a focus “on the integration and finding differences which foster innovation in society, which aligns with Futures studies approach of using many fields of studies together”. The project also employed new tools, such as big data and artificial intelligence.

Figure 3: Our national strategy is based on one future, a singular future imagined by a small group of people. Would the public agree with the forecasted future? Alongside the lack of data support, this is a major issue of our public policy strategies. The new generation of policymakers must utilize the data and raise the awareness.

Professor Mingsarn Kaosa-ard, Ph.D., the Director of Public Policy Studies Institute Foundation (PPSI)

She believes that the public should be encouraged to be involved in forecasting the nation’s futures. From her experience, citizens from all provinces are interested in forecasting their futures and are prepared to face the technological changes. Future planning needs more data and information to guide and create accurate, comprehensive and effective developments.

Finland and Singapore: Outstanding Users of Futures studies

Assoc. Prof. Apiwat mentions Finland and Singapore as countries with outstanding futures studies expertise. In both countries, the governments place particular importance in forecasting and futures studies, and have established organizations charged with the objective of planning the national strategy.

Finland uses a process that emphasizes checks and balances through specialized organizations for futures studies. The organizations influence legislative, executive, academic, and social institutions. Specialized institutions counterbalance each other’s influences, while futures studies communities flourish. It can also be said that Finland’s public play an important role in the futures studies.

In contrast, Singapore’s community of futures studies is still limited to the academic circles, and the leading influences in the field are primarily governmental scholars. The field is centralized under government organizations. The centralized nature of the field creates top-down strategies and public policies.

At a conference organized by the Centre for Strategic Futures, the Prime minister’s Office, Singapore, Dr. Sorapop Kiatpongsan, Director of the Institute of Public Policy and Development (IPPD), had the opportunity to converse with leading thinkers of futures studies from other countries. The three main topics discussed were geopolitics, security, and society. The issues facing foresight as a discipline, as concluded by experts, are related to the idea that the public do not view futures studies as urgent, and so, it is not as valued. The task, therefore, is to make long-term future strategies relatable and connected to the decisions being made today.

Figure 4: Futures Studies is not only the concern of individual researchers in the field, it is a matter of interdisciplinary studies that focus on the mindset and process over the finished report. To successfully implement future-driven public policy, we need to encourage future-oriented thinking in stakeholders.

Dr. Sorapop Kiatpongsan, Director of the Institute of Public Policy and Development (IPPD)

Dr. Sorapop also pointed out that futures studies are a matter of mindset and processes. For futures studies to succeed, stakeholders must become involved as the field should not be limited to specialized organizations.

Dr. Sorapop regards futures studies as an interdisciplinary field that should not be bound to the specialists in closed meetings.

Thai futures studies and the future of Thailand

When returning to the subject of Thailand, Assoc. Prof. Apiwat says that futures studies is still a young discipline in the country. Most of the analyses made focus on the short and mid-range predictions (5-10 years) and often lack analysis of structural changes. In turn, the results from Thai futures studies are underutilized as people do not trust in the process. To address these limitations, futures studies theories should also be introduced in the analyses to make results more reliable.

Professor Mingsarn concluded that futures planning should be open to everyone, especially the newer generation who should play an important role.

“Thailand’s policy making is based on one future, a singular future envisioned by a small group of people. The question is now whether others agree with this vision. This is a major issue for public policy, alongside the limited use of data. Thus, it is crucial for the newer generation of policymakers to play an important role in utilizing data and knowledge in futures studies.”

If you are interested in learning more about futures Studies, the researchers have published the book “Futures Studies” to disseminate knowledge and information about this field of study. The e-book can be downloaded for free at https://www.tsri.or.th/th/knowledge/publication, while the report from the Foresight Conference 2019: Society 4.0 can be downloaded from https://www.csf.gov.sg/files/media-centre/FC2019-external-report.pdf.

• Foresight is an important tool for designing public policy that is future-fit in a constantly changing world.
• The Delphi method is one of the foresight tools that is used for forecasting technological trends, whose key component is a diverse expert network.

It is undeniable that we are now living in a extremely volatile world that is driven by a multitude of factors, from political conflicts and international trade wars to extreme weather events, rapid technological advances, and the global spread of COVID-19. These factors each play a fundamental role in shaking the foundations of the economic systems and global society. With the increasing momentum of change, it is crucial that we are prepared for the ensuing whiplash.

Nonetheless, preparedness does not simply mean reactive measures. We need to employ proactive measures with careful planning that can mitigate the negative impacts caused by the uncertainties of the future. It is necessary for the government to use foresight in planning and designing public policies, including the evaluation of impending trends that may impact society. Lastly, as public policy is crucial to improving the population’s quality of life and the overall development of the country, it should not be based solely on past events without any regard for the future, but instead account for the possible futures.

By utilizing foresight tools in public policy design, the government can predict opportunities and challenges that may occur in the future and create new policies based on the forecasts. It can also test the effectiveness of the policies against possible scenarios. Thus, foresight tools can increase a country’s capabilities and preparedness for the future. Nowadays, foresight is considered important for designing future-fit public policies in many countries. In Singapore, the government has established a forecast organization as part of the Prime Minister’s Office. The organization is involved in analyzing trends, assessing risks, and designing the direction of Singapore’s public policy. By employing these methods, Singapore is ranked as a country with high capability to prepare for and cope with crisis.

Foresight tools

Unlike forecast that predicts the future based on past and present events, foresight is the examination of possible futures through critical thinking and creativity. There are many methods of conducting foresight, including scenario planning, visioning, and Delphi method. Delphi is one of the more well-known tools of foresight, which is used to analyze trends that may not have clear data-based evidence, such as technological development trends, technology use trends, and morality and value trends in society.

The Delphi Method was developed by Olaf Helmer and Normal Dalkey, from The RAND Corporation. The method was first proposed in the 1962 article “An experimental application of the Delphi method to the use of experts.” Since then, the method has evolved and adapted for conducting foresight for use in other countries including Japan, Germany, South Korea, and in some countries in the European Union – as a tool to analyze the changing national trends of science and technology.

The main feature of the Delphi method is in the multiple rounds of collecting experts’ opinion, through at least two rounds of surveys. The first round responses are usually analyzed as a whole and returned to the experts, who can review other experts’ opinions anonymously. Following this feedback, the experts are once again invited to submit their response for the second round. As the experts are given the chance to consider their answers more than once and interact with other opinions, it can be said that Delphi is valuable and reliable method.

The RAND corporation institute has a developed ExpertLens, a tool based on the Delphi method. The tool consists of four rounds altogether: 1. idea generation, 2. assessment, 3. feedback & discussion, and 4. reassessment.

The strengths of the Delphi method lies in its systematic repetition, controlled feedback and anonymity of the experts. Therefore, the experts have the freedom to express their personal opinions and not be swayed by the majority or other pressures presented in group settings. At the same time, each expert can respond to the surveys in their own time, without the need to meet, reducing issues of coordination.

However, the limitations of the Delphi method is in the reliance on the experiences of the experts within the network. The experts are expected to make a thorough and give their carefully considered opinions, so the results can be used to accurately and effectively plan for future public policies.

Currently, the Institute of Public Policy and Development (IPPD)’s Foresight & Futures Lab (FFL) is researching and developing the Delphi method to serve as a tool in forecasting and analyzing future trends, alongside creating an expert network from diverse fields. The network will be a space for the specialists to exchange views and form a joint vision for Thailand’s future. The specialists will be involved in sustainable long-term development and public policy design, and eventually changing the policy design and supporting our country’s development in the future.

To create a transparent process that embraces new ideas, Foresight & Futures Lab (FFL) invite readers to nominate specialists who are knowledgeable about “future technological trends of Thailand” to participate in the IPPD Delphi network and plan Thailand’s future. The nominations can be submitted through the nomination form until June 28, 2020. If you have any questions or need to contact us directly, you can reach us at ffl@ippd.or.th.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is reshaping our economic market, allowing for the automation of business processes, and prompting the risk of unprecedented job losses across commercial sectors. Emerging economies have shown a growing call for the use of technology, and AI tools are increasingly commoditized through broad applications, ranging from digital manufacturing to tourism. In response to such changes, governments must harness this tool to strengthen international competitiveness, while also introducing the right interventions to minimize job losses.

IPPD has worked with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) to equip policy makers with a better understanding of the future impacts of AI. The report draws on both quantitative economic modelling and qualitative insights from expert interviews, past policies, and technology analysis. As a result, there are three plausible scenarios based on different policy choices to illustrate how AI can affect Thailand’s economy and its workforce in the future.

เศรษฐกิจใหม่ (New Economy) ตั้งอยู่บนรากฐานของการใช้เทคโนโลยีที่สูงขึ้น และปัญญาประดิษฐ์ หรือ Artificial Intelligence (AI) ก็กำลังเป็นที่ต้องการมากขึ้นอย่างต่อเนื่องทั้งในภาคอุตสาหกรรมและภาคบริการ แต่ในขณะเดียวกัน เทคโนโลยี AI ก็สร้างผลกระทบต่อระบบตลาดและเศรษฐกิจ ปรับการทำงานในธุรกิจให้กลายเป็นระบบอัตโนมัติมากขึ้น และก่อให้เกิดความเสี่ยงต่อการสูญเสียงานจากการทดแทนแรงงานด้วยหุ่นยนต์
ภาครัฐจำเป็นต้องเตรียมพร้อมรับมือกับความเปลี่ยนแปลงนี้โดยการเลือกใช้เครื่องมือทางเทคโนโลยีเพื่อเพิ่ม
ขีดความสามารถในการแข่งขันในระดับนานาชาติ ทั้งยังต้องเพิ่มมาตรการเพื่อให้แรงงานคนสามารถปรับตัวได้
ท่ามกลางการแทนที่แรงงานด้วยหุ่นยนต์

สถาบันนโยบายสาธารณะและการพัฒนา (IPPD) ร่วมกับ The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) จัดทำรายงานเพื่อศึกษาถึงผลกระทบของ AI ในอนาคต โดยรายงานนี้เป็นผลจากการวิเคราะห์เชิงปริมาณด้วยการสร้างแบบจำลองทางเศรษฐกิจ และการวิเคราะห์เชิงคุณภาพผ่านการสัมภาษณ์ผู้เชี่ยวชาญ การวิเคราะห์นโยบายเดิม และการวิเคราะห์การเปลี่ยนแปลงทางเทคโนโลยี ทั้งนี้ ผลลัพธ์ดังกล่าวได้รับการนำเสนอผ่านภาพอนาคต 3 ฉากทัศน์ที่แสดงถึงผลกระทบทางเศรษฐกิจและแรงงานจากทางเลือกทางนโยบาย 3 ด้านที่แตกต่างกัน

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ติดตามรายงานเต็มฉบับภาษาไทยได้เร็ว ๆ นี้

Thailand, along with the rest of the world, is experiencing major long-term developmental changes. While some changes are apparent at surface level and relatively predictable, other transitions are less conspicuous yet more volatile. By uncovering what drives these developmental changes in Thailand, particularly ones with high impacts but weak signals, it is possible to anticipate perhaps otherwise undetected consequences that could affect the trajectory of the country. There are many paths for Thailand’s futures, and it is most prudent for a society to have an insight into what propels it.

In late 2019, the Institute of Public Policy and Development (IPPD) worked with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) to conduct a horizon scanning project that surveys the strategic drivers impacting Thailand in the long term, focusing primarily on those which are critical but uncertain. The objective of this project is to develop a system to identify and understand strategic priorities for Thailand in the longer-term future. The result is an exploration into 8 priority factors with high impact and high uncertainty. The 8 factors are:

1. Ageing
2. Biotech
3. Changing geopolitics
4. Disaster risk and urban sustainability
5. Fourth industrial revolution and 21st century skills
6. Inequality
7. Migration
8. Technology and politics

การเปลี่ยนแปลงในระดับโลกกำลังท้าทายและจะส่งผลกระทบต่อแนวทางการพัฒนาของประเทศไทยในอนาคต ถึงแม้การเปลี่ยนแปลงบางอย่างสามารถรับรู้ได้อย่างชัดเจนและคาดการณ์ต่อได้โดยง่าย แต่การเปลี่ยนแปลงอื่นกลับเป็นดังคลื่นใต้น้ำที่มีเพียงสัญญาณเบาบาง มีความไม่แน่นอนสูง แต่สามารถส่งผลกระทบอย่างรุนแรงได้ในอนาคต ฉะนั้น ความตั้งใจศึกษา กวาดหาสัญญาณ และคำนึงถึงการเปลี่ยนแปลงของประเทศไทยอย่างลึกซึ้งจึงเป็นเรื่องสำคัญมากขึ้น โดยเฉพาะอย่างยิ่ง การเปลี่ยนแปลงที่ยังไม่แน่นอนแต่จะส่งผลกระทบอย่างรุนแรงต่อการพัฒนาประเทศไทย ความไม่แน่นอนในอนาคตดังกล่าวส่งผลให้การวางเป้าหมายและแผนยุทธศาสตร์จำเป็นต้องคำนึงถึงการเปลี่ยนแปลงเหล่านี้อย่างลึกซึ้ง รอบคอบ และมองการณ์ไกลยิ่งขึ้น

ในปลาย พ.ศ. 2563 สถาบันนโยบายสาธารณะและการพัฒนา (IPPD) ร่วมกับ The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) ได้จัดทำโครงการรายงานเพื่อสำรวจปัจจัยเชิงยุทธศาสตร์ที่จะกระทบต่อการพัฒนาของประเทศไทยในระยะยาว โดย เน้นปัจจัยที่มีความไม่แน่นอนสูงและมีผลกระทบต่อสังคมสูง ซึ่งวัตถุประสงค์หลักของ IPPD สำหรับโครงการนี้คือการพัฒนาระบบการตรวจหาและสำรวจยุทธปัจจัยที่สำคัญสำหรับประเทศไทยในระยะยาว ทั้งนี้ ผลลัพธ์ของโครงการนี้คือการสำรวจปัจจัย 8 อย่างที่สำคัญสำหรับอนาคตของประเทศไทย ได้แก่

1. สังคมผู้สูงอายุ
2. เทคโนโลยีชีวภาพ
3. การเปลี่ยนแปลงในภูมิรัฐศาสตร์โลก
4. ความเสี่ยงจากภัยพิบัติ และความยั่งยืนของเมือง
5. การปฏิวัติอุตสาหกรรม 4.0 และทักษะในศตวรรษที่ 21
6. ความเหลื่อมล้ำ
7. การย้ายถิ่น และการเคลื่อนไหวของผู้คน
8. เทคโนโลยี การมีส่วนร่วม และการเมือง

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ติดตามรายงานเต็มฉบับภาษาไทยได้เร็ว ๆ นี้