World Bank, in cooperation with the Institute for Public Policy and Development (IPPD), organized “Thailand in the Time of COVID-19: Effective and Sustainable Economic and Social Responses” webinar on July 15, 2020. The webinar presented “Thailand Economic Monitor: Thailand in the time of COVID-19” report by the World Bank Group, which researched Thailand’s economic situation amidst the COVID-19 pandemic as well as hosting a forum to find a sustainable and effective solution for the country.

Figure 1: [text already in English] GDP growth in 2020 will decline sharply as a result of the unprecedented impact of the COVID- 19 global pandemic. Looking ahead, the important aspect to consider is now just how deep the contraction is in 2020, but also how quickly the economic output can get back to its pre-pandemic level. We expect this recovery to be gradual, taking at least two years for the economy to recover to its pre-COVID output, and extremely uncertain, with high downside risks stemming from the course of the pandemic and continued weakness in global economic activity, particularly from continued disruptions of global value chains.

Arvind Nair, senior economist, World Bank Group

The forum was opened by Arvind Nair, a Senior Economist from the World Bank Group, who presented Thailand’s economic position. The data shows that the COVID-19 pandemic left Thailand in an unstable economic situation as the rate of economic growth fell by 1.8 percent compared to 2019. Additionally, forecasts show that Thailand’s economy is more affected by the pandemic than other Asian-Pacific countries, due to the manufacturing sector being affected by the reduced global demand in the supply chain and the lack of international tourism, which brings in over 15 percent of Thailand’s GDP.

World Bank also estimates that over 8.3 million workers in the country will be negatively impacted by the economic contraction, which reinforces inequality and disproportionately affects vulnerable groups. The number of people living in poverty will increase, even with financial support from the state. The economic outlook can rapidly deteriorate and reach -5 percent in 2020. It will take Thailand at least two years to revive the economy back to a figure close to 2019’s output.

Figure 2: Thai people’s quality of life should be the focus for long-term policies after COVID-19. Policymakers need to address the current hardships faced by the population through safety net policies as well as educational and reskilling policies that will help all citizens.

Dr. Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, senior economist, World Bank Thailand

For the remedial policies, Dr. Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, a Senior Economist at World Bank Thailand, claimed that Thailand has utilized a variety of fiscal and monetary measures quickly, spending over 13 percent of the GDP. The government has implemented aid measures, such as 5,000 baht support checks and delayed debt collection for private firms. Dr. Kiatipong also emphasized the importance of safety net policies for vulnerable groups in Thai society through social welfare schemes. In his opinion, the state also needs to develop additional skills such as digital and e-commerce skills in the population, as well as support small and medium businesses (SMEs) to adapt to the rapidly changing world, especially in the industrial sector.

Figure 3: With the COVID-19 pandemic, Thailand needs to review and revise our current economic model. Will we continue using the old model that relies on limited engines and can carry only a small group of people? Or will we change to use a multiple-engine machine that can effectively utilize resources and carry more people? We need to create Thailand’s economic engine that can help create prosperity and a better standard of living for Thai people.

Dr. Anuk Serechetapongse, developmental economist, UNDP

Dr. Anuk Serechetapongse, a Developmental Economist from UNDP, compared the economic mechanisms as an automobile with defunct components. Many vulnerable groups have been severely affected by the economic problems. The UN study found that poverty among workers is increasing at every income level. Dr. Anuk also mentions the gender disparity as women have a 10 percent higher risk of unemployment than men. First jobbers have a 4.2 percent higher likelihood of becoming unemployed. Businesses are not exempt from the crisis, especially SMEs that might lose of over 60 percent of their revenue and over 80 percent of the agricultural sector will lose revenue.

Figure 4: [text already in English] Information and communications technology (ICT) can be used for providing support during COVID- 19 pandemic. Thailand has a strong ICT system that could facilitate the response to the pandemic. Going forward, Thailand needs to build interoperable social registries to ensure effective coverage of the most in need and facilitate rapid scale up of social protection programs. Thailand would be able to utilize those registries during future crisis.

Francesca Lamannna, senior social protection economist, World Bank Group

For the governmental support in other countries, Francesca Lamannna, a Senior Social Protection Economist from the World Bank Group, gave examples of countries with financial support policies similar to Thailand. The Philippines has set up emergency aid to 18 million households or around 80 percent of their population. Indonesia has provided three months of financial support and extended assistance to those living outside Jakarta. Brazil also provided assistance for households through a public registration system, which was utilized for disease control as well. Additionally, Lamannna noted that governments can benefit from widespread data collection and a robust IT system for social safety net programs.

Figure 5: If a second wave of COVID-19 cases triggers another lockdown and financial slowdown, we must reassess the sustainability guidelines of keeping public debt under 60 percent of the GDP. Currently, many countries’ debt exceed this figure. If Thailand relaxes the rules for a crisis of this magnitude, we will have increased financial funds to weather the crisis. However, if the debt ceiling is not raised, it will be likely that we will not have enough money.

Dr. Don Nakornthab, Senior Director, Macroeconomics Department, Bank of Thailand

Dr. Don Nakornthab, Senior Director, Macroeconomics Department at the Bank of Thailand, maintained that the policies needed to solve our economic problems require cooperation from multiple sectors. The Bank of Thailand has implemented monetary policies such as enhancing liquidity for stakeholders, adjusting interest rates to reduce outstanding debt, increasing loans to SMEs, and stabilizing financial institutions.

Figure 6: We should not view the options of saving lives or reopening the economy as a dilemma, as measures and policy in response to COVID-19 must aim at both preserving lives and restoring the economy.

Dr. Sorapop Kiatpongsan, Director, Institute for Public Policy and Development (IPPD)

One of the biggest questions of this forum is the reconciliation between saving lives and maintaining the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Dr. Sorapop Kiatpongsan, Director of the Institute for Public Policy and Development (IPPD), argued against the idea that the economy and people’s lives are two roads that cannot converge. Instead, he asserted that it should be seen as a deeply intertwined issue that needs to be addressed together to create effective policies. He also raised the question of what can we learn from this pandemic? How will we prepare for the next outbreak? The speaker concluded that the best way forward is to gather information and data to support effective policy design in an uncertain future.

• Futures studies is a very prominent field in Finland and Singapore, albeit in different ways.

• In Thailand, futures studies are a new field that needs to be widely publicized. More information can be accessed through the e-book “Futures Studies” linked here: https://www.tsri.or.th/th/knowledge/publication

Currently, the global community is facing highly uncertain changes. At the moment, the most apparent and pressing change of all is the COVID-19 global pandemic that has completely transformed society as we know it, accompanied by a new way of living that has people wearing face masks and carrying out social distancing. This is an example of an unexpected event that has caught society unaware.

Therefore, it is crucial that we, as a society, are prepared to deal with unexpected scenarios. As members of the global community, we all need to be able to understand the changes, make connections between factors, build knowledge and develop tools that can help us understand and manage the future through futures studies or futurology. The field of futures studies is a way to overcome the boundaries of traditional knowledge structures and engage in an interdisciplinary and holistic study. It utilizes different disciplines – philosophy, methodology, concepts, and theories of changes – to create a unified system based on logical knowledge and imagination.

For these reasons, futures studies are crucial for stakeholders and policymakers when forecasting the futures and designing the path forward for public policy after the COVID-19 pandemic.

On June 17, 2020, the Institute for Public Policy and Development (IPPD) and Thailand Science Research and Innovation (TSRI) hosted the special webinar “Utilizing Futures Studies in the Transforming World” to serve as a forum for discussion and knowledge exchange about futures studies. Futures studies are a way to foresee the futures through using various theories and interdisciplinary knowledge. Additionally, there is the launch of the “Futures Studies” book, which was synthesized from “A Review of the State of Knowledge in Futures Studies” research project that was supported by TSRI.

What are Futures Studies?

As the head of the research project, Assoc. Prof. Apiwat Ratanawaraha, Ph.D., from Faculty of Architecture, Chulalongkorn University, gave the overview of futures studies as a field that focuses on creating theories, principles, and methods of understanding and navigating the futures. Foresight is a basic tool that can develop and evolve with new knowledge and societal conditions.

Figure 1: The inequality to the recognized and access futures is the origin of many social problems. For a long time, social activists have been increasing access and encouraging everyone to imagine futures. The public’s involvement in the foresight process is crucial if we do not want a repeat of the predictable and limited forecasts done previously by forecasters and technocrats.

ASSOC. PROF. APIWAT RATANAWARAHA (PH.D.), Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Architecture, Chulalongkorn University

Futures studies became a coherent study during World War 1, when military needed to strategize and plan futures to win against their enemies. The brainstorming processes created a way to systematically forecast the future through accurate data.

In its conception, futures studies was based on forecasts and empirical evidence. Soon, the knowledge from other fields such as economics and social sciences were also integrated into the processes. The discipline further evolved, by developing broader, critical methodologies that take into account the environment and the evolution of mankind.

Recently, it is increasingly debated among futurists argued that foresight should not be limited to expert opinions and it should involve the general public. Similarly, foresight should not simply be regarded as part of sociology, but should be adaptable to other disciplines as well. And as seen in many countries, foresight is now integrating in big data, machine learning and artificial intelligence into its process.

Why do we need futures studies?

Assoc. Prof. Chanathip Pharino, Ph.D., Director of Future Strategy and Initiative Program Division, TSRI, revealed that the “Futures Studies” book was written because TRSI realized the importance of futures studies. It is a discipline that can influence many research and development programs that guide the formulation of public policy.

More importantly, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Chanathip asserted that it was a necessity to make futures studies education more accessible to the general public. Nowadays, the methodology of futures studies is still limited to academic circles, and she hopes that the research will help develop “human capital” in this field of study. This is achieved to the publication of “Futures Studies” book and university course on the subject.

Figure 2: It is necessary to develop and promote futures studies to the general public to understand and access. Futures studies has been developed for a long time but it is still known in limited circles, thus it should be promoted to a wider audience. Our goals is to develop the science of futures studies and future research so it can be put to good use.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Chanathip Pharino, Director of Future Strategy and Initiative Program Division, TSRI

Professor Mingsarn Kaosa-ard, Ph.D., the Director of Public Policy Studies Institute Foundation (PPSI) and project leader for “Khon Thai 4.0”, described the connection between the project and futures studies as a focus “on the integration and finding differences which foster innovation in society, which aligns with Futures studies approach of using many fields of studies together”. The project also employed new tools, such as big data and artificial intelligence.

Figure 3: Our national strategy is based on one future, a singular future imagined by a small group of people. Would the public agree with the forecasted future? Alongside the lack of data support, this is a major issue of our public policy strategies. The new generation of policymakers must utilize the data and raise the awareness.

Professor Mingsarn Kaosa-ard, Ph.D., the Director of Public Policy Studies Institute Foundation (PPSI)

She believes that the public should be encouraged to be involved in forecasting the nation’s futures. From her experience, citizens from all provinces are interested in forecasting their futures and are prepared to face the technological changes. Future planning needs more data and information to guide and create accurate, comprehensive and effective developments.

Finland and Singapore: Outstanding Users of Futures studies

Assoc. Prof. Apiwat mentions Finland and Singapore as countries with outstanding futures studies expertise. In both countries, the governments place particular importance in forecasting and futures studies, and have established organizations charged with the objective of planning the national strategy.

Finland uses a process that emphasizes checks and balances through specialized organizations for futures studies. The organizations influence legislative, executive, academic, and social institutions. Specialized institutions counterbalance each other’s influences, while futures studies communities flourish. It can also be said that Finland’s public play an important role in the futures studies.

In contrast, Singapore’s community of futures studies is still limited to the academic circles, and the leading influences in the field are primarily governmental scholars. The field is centralized under government organizations. The centralized nature of the field creates top-down strategies and public policies.

At a conference organized by the Centre for Strategic Futures, the Prime minister’s Office, Singapore, Dr. Sorapop Kiatpongsan, Director of the Institute of Public Policy and Development (IPPD), had the opportunity to converse with leading thinkers of futures studies from other countries. The three main topics discussed were geopolitics, security, and society. The issues facing foresight as a discipline, as concluded by experts, are related to the idea that the public do not view futures studies as urgent, and so, it is not as valued. The task, therefore, is to make long-term future strategies relatable and connected to the decisions being made today.

Figure 4: Futures Studies is not only the concern of individual researchers in the field, it is a matter of interdisciplinary studies that focus on the mindset and process over the finished report. To successfully implement future-driven public policy, we need to encourage future-oriented thinking in stakeholders.

Dr. Sorapop Kiatpongsan, Director of the Institute of Public Policy and Development (IPPD)

Dr. Sorapop also pointed out that futures studies are a matter of mindset and processes. For futures studies to succeed, stakeholders must become involved as the field should not be limited to specialized organizations.

Dr. Sorapop regards futures studies as an interdisciplinary field that should not be bound to the specialists in closed meetings.

Thai futures studies and the future of Thailand

When returning to the subject of Thailand, Assoc. Prof. Apiwat says that futures studies is still a young discipline in the country. Most of the analyses made focus on the short and mid-range predictions (5-10 years) and often lack analysis of structural changes. In turn, the results from Thai futures studies are underutilized as people do not trust in the process. To address these limitations, futures studies theories should also be introduced in the analyses to make results more reliable.

Professor Mingsarn concluded that futures planning should be open to everyone, especially the newer generation who should play an important role.

“Thailand’s policy making is based on one future, a singular future envisioned by a small group of people. The question is now whether others agree with this vision. This is a major issue for public policy, alongside the limited use of data. Thus, it is crucial for the newer generation of policymakers to play an important role in utilizing data and knowledge in futures studies.”

If you are interested in learning more about futures Studies, the researchers have published the book “Futures Studies” to disseminate knowledge and information about this field of study. The e-book can be downloaded for free at https://www.tsri.or.th/th/knowledge/publication, while the report from the Foresight Conference 2019: Society 4.0 can be downloaded from https://www.csf.gov.sg/files/media-centre/FC2019-external-report.pdf.

As the country recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, our new way of life may cause greater environmental impact. The increased carbon emissions, waste production, and natural resource consumption will negatively impact the ecosystem and biodiversity. Despite these changes, we cannot neglect the Earth’s natural environment nor the wellbeing of the people. Solutions such as green investments in renewable energy, smart homes systems present new ways to achieve a more sustainable future.

The United Nations designated 5th June as “World Environment Day” as a day to raise awareness on the significance of the environment.

For this year’s World Environment Day, the focus is on the topic of biodiversity, especially in regard to the coexistence of humans and the environment, and how humans have come to rely on nature in daily life.

The Institute for Public Policy and Development (IPPD), together with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the SWITCH-Asia project, organized a special webinar event to celebrate World Environment Day 2020, under the title of “Biodiversity for Sustainable Consumption and Production” on June 5, 2020, 10.15- 12.30 hrs. The event provided a platform for new perspectives and ideas promoting sustainable consumption. The participants came from various backgrounds, including government, private sector, civil society, academia, citizens, and international organizations.

Alex Rendell appointment as Thailand’s first UNDP ambassador

This webinar opened with the announcement of Alex Rendell as Thailand’s first United Nations Environment Programme’s goodwill ambassador. Rendell is an actor who founded the Environmental Education Center (EEC) to promote green knowledge and raise environmental awareness amongst the youth. He believes that using nature as a classroom will connect students to nature and make them more protective of the natural world. Rendell’s primary role as goodwill ambassador is to collaborate with the youth and the media to drive the green movement.

In the opening ceremony, Dr. Dechen Tsering, director and representative of United Nations Environment Program’s Asia and the Pacific Office, discussed the current situation of the global battle against COVID-19 pandemic and climate change. By creating a sustainable social and economic outlook, we can better solve these issues in the long run. This year’s campaign #ForNature embodies the theme of 2020’s Earth Day and reminds us that environmental issues are key to mankind’s wellbeing.

Figure 1: We are dealing with both the global spread of COVID-19 and climate change crisis. As this year’s World Environment Day focuses on sustainability, a sustainable society and economic model is crucial for long-term recovery. The natural world reminds us that the environment is the key to our wellbeing and our recovery.

Dr. Dechen Tsering, director and representative of United Nations Environment Program Asia and the Pacific Office

The H.E. Mr. Pirkka Tapiola, the ambassador of the European Union to Thailand, also opened the session. He said that biodiversity is one of the main issues prioritized by the European Union. EU member states have set a common standard for commercial, industrial, agricultural, and economic policies that take biodiversity into account. Biodiversity strategies are a crucial component in the implementation of the European Green Deal – a new green growth strategy by the EU.

Figure 2: EU places utmost importance on biodiversity. The member states are committed to deliver a new standard for biodiversity that is part of the trade, industrial, agricultural, and economic policies. The new comprehensive biodiversity strategy is one of the principles of the European Green Deal that greens our growth.

H.E. Mr. Pirkka Tapiola, the Ambassador of the European Union to Thailand

At the conclusion of the opening ceremony, Warawut Silpa-archa, Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, explored particularly on the theme of World Environment Day 2020: “Time for Nature: Find out What You Can Do”. He urged the audience to start by changing their own behaviors to become more ecofriendly, such as rethinking our consumption and to reduce, reuse, and recycle. He also emphasized increasing empathy and awareness of the natural world and the environment, while engaging in sustainable recovery and development based on UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. The minister invites everyone to help create a new normal that is sustainable and resilient to change from an individual to a global level.

Figure 3: From now on, we must embrace the new normal in our day-to-day life. We encourage everyone to do their part to help Thailand navigate the COVID-19 crisis while sustainably maintaining our natural world. We need to change our lifestyle by reducing, reusing and recycling. It is time to breathe life back into nature for the next generation.

Warawut Silpa-archa, Minister of Natural Resources and Environment

In this occasion, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment plans for yearly 3-month closures of national parks for the nature regenerate and increase biodiversity. The minister mentioned that it is time to “breath life back into nature” for our children.

Why save nature? What does it give us?

The session began with a discussion of biodiversity – its meaning and importance – by Tunnie Srisakulchairak, an academic officer at SWITCH-Asia under UNDP. She explained that biodiversity can be categorized into three levels. The first level is the quantity, such as the size of a mangrove forest of 20 rais with 4,000 trees. The second level is a diversity of ecosystem, such as the variety of trees that exist in the mangrove forest that can act as a shelter for other organisms. The final level is the diversity of ecosystems that exist within a region, such as a stretch of coastline with mangrove forests, sandy beaches, and coral reefs. This level is where life is most diverse. And although Thailand has very diverse ecosystems, their continued existence needs to be conserved by increasing the diversity in each ecosystem.

Figure 4: The major problem for leaders and policymakers is finding a balance between social development, economic growth, and environmental protection as each country has different natural resource needs and issues. Cities also play an important role as local action can influence policy decisions. Increased awareness of the environmental issues can also create an impactful social movement.

Tunnie Srisakulchairak, academic officer, United Nations Environment Program, Asia and the Pacific Office

Tunnie then pointed out the four benefits of biodiversity. The first is the fundamental aspects of nature that might not be observable, such as atmospheric conditions and nutrient cycles in soil. The second is the natural produce that humans receive, such as food, clean water, and vitamins and minerals. The third is an operational level where the natural world provide humans with possibilities, such as the changing of seasons. The fourth is nature’s healing and inspirational effects on humans, such the beach being a vacation spot.

Despite the short amount of time since humanity began polluting the natural world, the released waste is likely to impact biodiversity and may lead to natural disasters, climate change, and pandemics.

However, UNEP and the European Union have implemented measures to ensure sustainable production and consumption. By working with the government, the private sector, and the public, UNEP encourages manufacturers to participate in the Green Industry. This process is to ensure that raw materials are brought back into the system and reduce the strain of providing humans with more natural resources. UNDP also pushes for increased Green Purchasing and informs consumers of a sustainable lifestyle, which will use market mechanisms to generate change. Tunnie also mentioned that we should employ the principle of “Build Back Better” to create a more sustainable way of interacting with nature.

Dr. Sorapop Kiatpongsan, the Managing Director of the Institute for Public Policy and Development, opened the discussion with three questions regarding a sustainable Thailand: How can we make environmental issues “close” to people’s hearts? How can we make it “broader” than just economic concerns? How can we sustain the movement “long” enough to reach the next generation?

When sustainability is the solution for businesses and civil society

Jirawat Tangkijngamwong, a representative of the private sector from DEESAWAT, a wooden furniture company, corrected the misunderstanding that the use of timber destroys the environment when it is an ecofriendly material that can be used sustainably. The government should amend the laws to meet the needs of the public and industry. The two sides can work together to push for legislation for legal use of timber and commercial forests.

Figure 5: We should not ban all use of timber because a desire to preserve the forest, which is not the most environmentally-friendly option. These two options contradict each other, yet they are part of the solution. To maintain a biodiverse forest and wildlife, we need to plant trees and create a sustainable forest through selective cutting. Biodiverse reforestation efforts will align with the low carbon society goals.

Jirawat Tangkijngamwong, Deputy Managing Director of DEESAWAT Company

With regards to short-term and long-term biodiversity, Jirawat also proposed a perspective from the private industrial sector. Any product design must take the environmental impact into account, by being sustainable and by generating a minimal amount of waste. Companies must listen to stakeholders to gain insight and develop accordingly. Labor unions, for example, provide valuable insight into contemporary discussions.

Jirawat also commented on the bio-circular economy potential of wood and timber. Timber can be cultivated to be a substitute building material like in the United States, where people are encouraged to build wooden houses without steel reinforcements.

Representing civil society, Supawut Boonmahathanakorn, from Jai Baan Studio, a founder of Chiang Mai Urban gardening group, talked about the creation of green space. After the COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted the service sector in Chiang Mai, he developed 3-hectares of abandoned public space to produce organic and fairly-priced vegetables and create jobs in the city.

Figure 6: When we talk about vegetable gardens, people often assume that its only product is vegetables. However, another important result of these urban gardens is they can reduce the transit of food supplies, especially in crisis situations where food is an important factor.

Supawut Boonmahathanakorn, founder of Jai Baan Studio and Chiang Mai Urban gardening group

There is also increased cooperation between the government and public. For instance, while some people provide saplings, others dedicate their time to plant and maintain the garden. The project that began from a small group of people eventually grew to become a solution for food security, created green space, and acted as an agricultural classroom. This model can be used in other locations as well.

A sustainable way of living starts with you

Kru Loukgolf or Kanatip Soonthornrak is the founder of the “Little Big Green” campaign and website. Kanatip suggested that we need to make environmental issues a pressing issue to the public. From his personal experience, he had previously been ignorant about environmental concerns until he began spending time with environment-conscious. Ever since, he started changing his habits. The changes started with small actions like avoiding plastic straws. When he succeeded, he was proud of his achievement and decided to use more reusable containers such as mugs and lunch boxes. After Kanatip’s actions reached people online, he saw that it changed their lifestyles. Now, he has collaborated with others to create the Little Big Green project. He thinks that no matter how big or small the issue, it all ties back to the environment and we need to raise awareness and educate others. However, he is not worried about educating the younger generations, who still can make the world a better place. On the other hand, he is more concerned with the older generation who appear to care less about the issue. Kanatip urges everyone to take action, especially celebrities and influencers who have a powerful platform. They should not give up and make the public realize we can lead a green and sustainable lifestyle.

Figure 7: Thailand’s plethora of issues puts our environmental issues on the back burner. We rarely hear public figures and the public address the importance of the environment. Political parties rarely focus on environmental issues – that I can recall. The Little Big Project is created to push for a greener solution – no matter how big or small the solution is.

Kanatip Soonthornrak, founder of the Little Big Green campaign

Alex Rendell, UNDP’s goodwill ambassador, ended the discussion with his own perspectives on biodiversity. Five years ago, Rendell founded an environmental education center to educate children through activities and camps. By partnering with other organizations, students are shown that humans and natures are one and everything is sustainable. The center also expanded their volunteer group to create long-term awareness and sustainability.

Thus, it is crucial for the younger generation to become the leaders of the future. Rendell also sees the benefit of social media in promoting environmental issues to a wider group of audience. He concluded that this is a good start and we need to be more tolerant and open-minded. We should also reflect on ourselves if we are doing enough to create sustainability. When we all work together, the situation will not as bad as expected.

Figure 8: As someone working in the environmental scene, the hardest question for me to answer is why bother with conservation if you don’t like trees and forests. Everything is a way to create sustainability. If we cannot do so, it will eventually come back to harm humanity.

Alex Randell, United Nation Environment Program’s goodwill ambassador and founder of Environmental Education Center (EEC)

• Foresight is an important tool for designing public policy that is future-fit in a constantly changing world.
• The Delphi method is one of the foresight tools that is used for forecasting technological trends, whose key component is a diverse expert network.

It is undeniable that we are now living in a extremely volatile world that is driven by a multitude of factors, from political conflicts and international trade wars to extreme weather events, rapid technological advances, and the global spread of COVID-19. These factors each play a fundamental role in shaking the foundations of the economic systems and global society. With the increasing momentum of change, it is crucial that we are prepared for the ensuing whiplash.

Nonetheless, preparedness does not simply mean reactive measures. We need to employ proactive measures with careful planning that can mitigate the negative impacts caused by the uncertainties of the future. It is necessary for the government to use foresight in planning and designing public policies, including the evaluation of impending trends that may impact society. Lastly, as public policy is crucial to improving the population’s quality of life and the overall development of the country, it should not be based solely on past events without any regard for the future, but instead account for the possible futures.

By utilizing foresight tools in public policy design, the government can predict opportunities and challenges that may occur in the future and create new policies based on the forecasts. It can also test the effectiveness of the policies against possible scenarios. Thus, foresight tools can increase a country’s capabilities and preparedness for the future. Nowadays, foresight is considered important for designing future-fit public policies in many countries. In Singapore, the government has established a forecast organization as part of the Prime Minister’s Office. The organization is involved in analyzing trends, assessing risks, and designing the direction of Singapore’s public policy. By employing these methods, Singapore is ranked as a country with high capability to prepare for and cope with crisis.

Foresight tools

Unlike forecast that predicts the future based on past and present events, foresight is the examination of possible futures through critical thinking and creativity. There are many methods of conducting foresight, including scenario planning, visioning, and Delphi method. Delphi is one of the more well-known tools of foresight, which is used to analyze trends that may not have clear data-based evidence, such as technological development trends, technology use trends, and morality and value trends in society.

The Delphi Method was developed by Olaf Helmer and Normal Dalkey, from The RAND Corporation. The method was first proposed in the 1962 article “An experimental application of the Delphi method to the use of experts.” Since then, the method has evolved and adapted for conducting foresight for use in other countries including Japan, Germany, South Korea, and in some countries in the European Union – as a tool to analyze the changing national trends of science and technology.

The main feature of the Delphi method is in the multiple rounds of collecting experts’ opinion, through at least two rounds of surveys. The first round responses are usually analyzed as a whole and returned to the experts, who can review other experts’ opinions anonymously. Following this feedback, the experts are once again invited to submit their response for the second round. As the experts are given the chance to consider their answers more than once and interact with other opinions, it can be said that Delphi is valuable and reliable method.

The RAND corporation institute has a developed ExpertLens, a tool based on the Delphi method. The tool consists of four rounds altogether: 1. idea generation, 2. assessment, 3. feedback & discussion, and 4. reassessment.

The strengths of the Delphi method lies in its systematic repetition, controlled feedback and anonymity of the experts. Therefore, the experts have the freedom to express their personal opinions and not be swayed by the majority or other pressures presented in group settings. At the same time, each expert can respond to the surveys in their own time, without the need to meet, reducing issues of coordination.

However, the limitations of the Delphi method is in the reliance on the experiences of the experts within the network. The experts are expected to make a thorough and give their carefully considered opinions, so the results can be used to accurately and effectively plan for future public policies.

Currently, the Institute of Public Policy and Development (IPPD)’s Foresight & Futures Lab (FFL) is researching and developing the Delphi method to serve as a tool in forecasting and analyzing future trends, alongside creating an expert network from diverse fields. The network will be a space for the specialists to exchange views and form a joint vision for Thailand’s future. The specialists will be involved in sustainable long-term development and public policy design, and eventually changing the policy design and supporting our country’s development in the future.

To create a transparent process that embraces new ideas, Foresight & Futures Lab (FFL) invite readers to nominate specialists who are knowledgeable about “future technological trends of Thailand” to participate in the IPPD Delphi network and plan Thailand’s future. The nominations can be submitted through the nomination form until June 28, 2020. If you have any questions or need to contact us directly, you can reach us at ffl@ippd.or.th.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is reshaping our economic market, allowing for the automation of business processes, and prompting the risk of unprecedented job losses across commercial sectors. Emerging economies have shown a growing call for the use of technology, and AI tools are increasingly commoditized through broad applications, ranging from digital manufacturing to tourism. In response to such changes, governments must harness this tool to strengthen international competitiveness, while also introducing the right interventions to minimize job losses.

IPPD has worked with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) to equip policy makers with a better understanding of the future impacts of AI. The report draws on both quantitative economic modelling and qualitative insights from expert interviews, past policies, and technology analysis. As a result, there are three plausible scenarios based on different policy choices to illustrate how AI can affect Thailand’s economy and its workforce in the future.

เศรษฐกิจใหม่ (New Economy) ตั้งอยู่บนรากฐานของการใช้เทคโนโลยีที่สูงขึ้น และปัญญาประดิษฐ์ หรือ Artificial Intelligence (AI) ก็กำลังเป็นที่ต้องการมากขึ้นอย่างต่อเนื่องทั้งในภาคอุตสาหกรรมและภาคบริการ แต่ในขณะเดียวกัน เทคโนโลยี AI ก็สร้างผลกระทบต่อระบบตลาดและเศรษฐกิจ ปรับการทำงานในธุรกิจให้กลายเป็นระบบอัตโนมัติมากขึ้น และก่อให้เกิดความเสี่ยงต่อการสูญเสียงานจากการทดแทนแรงงานด้วยหุ่นยนต์
ภาครัฐจำเป็นต้องเตรียมพร้อมรับมือกับความเปลี่ยนแปลงนี้โดยการเลือกใช้เครื่องมือทางเทคโนโลยีเพื่อเพิ่ม
ขีดความสามารถในการแข่งขันในระดับนานาชาติ ทั้งยังต้องเพิ่มมาตรการเพื่อให้แรงงานคนสามารถปรับตัวได้
ท่ามกลางการแทนที่แรงงานด้วยหุ่นยนต์

สถาบันนโยบายสาธารณะและการพัฒนา (IPPD) ร่วมกับ The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) จัดทำรายงานเพื่อศึกษาถึงผลกระทบของ AI ในอนาคต โดยรายงานนี้เป็นผลจากการวิเคราะห์เชิงปริมาณด้วยการสร้างแบบจำลองทางเศรษฐกิจ และการวิเคราะห์เชิงคุณภาพผ่านการสัมภาษณ์ผู้เชี่ยวชาญ การวิเคราะห์นโยบายเดิม และการวิเคราะห์การเปลี่ยนแปลงทางเทคโนโลยี ทั้งนี้ ผลลัพธ์ดังกล่าวได้รับการนำเสนอผ่านภาพอนาคต 3 ฉากทัศน์ที่แสดงถึงผลกระทบทางเศรษฐกิจและแรงงานจากทางเลือกทางนโยบาย 3 ด้านที่แตกต่างกัน

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ติดตามรายงานเต็มฉบับภาษาไทยได้เร็ว ๆ นี้

Thailand, along with the rest of the world, is experiencing major long-term developmental changes. While some changes are apparent at surface level and relatively predictable, other transitions are less conspicuous yet more volatile. By uncovering what drives these developmental changes in Thailand, particularly ones with high impacts but weak signals, it is possible to anticipate perhaps otherwise undetected consequences that could affect the trajectory of the country. There are many paths for Thailand’s futures, and it is most prudent for a society to have an insight into what propels it.

In late 2019, the Institute of Public Policy and Development (IPPD) worked with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) to conduct a horizon scanning project that surveys the strategic drivers impacting Thailand in the long term, focusing primarily on those which are critical but uncertain. The objective of this project is to develop a system to identify and understand strategic priorities for Thailand in the longer-term future. The result is an exploration into 8 priority factors with high impact and high uncertainty. The 8 factors are:

1. Ageing
2. Biotech
3. Changing geopolitics
4. Disaster risk and urban sustainability
5. Fourth industrial revolution and 21st century skills
6. Inequality
7. Migration
8. Technology and politics

การเปลี่ยนแปลงในระดับโลกกำลังท้าทายและจะส่งผลกระทบต่อแนวทางการพัฒนาของประเทศไทยในอนาคต ถึงแม้การเปลี่ยนแปลงบางอย่างสามารถรับรู้ได้อย่างชัดเจนและคาดการณ์ต่อได้โดยง่าย แต่การเปลี่ยนแปลงอื่นกลับเป็นดังคลื่นใต้น้ำที่มีเพียงสัญญาณเบาบาง มีความไม่แน่นอนสูง แต่สามารถส่งผลกระทบอย่างรุนแรงได้ในอนาคต ฉะนั้น ความตั้งใจศึกษา กวาดหาสัญญาณ และคำนึงถึงการเปลี่ยนแปลงของประเทศไทยอย่างลึกซึ้งจึงเป็นเรื่องสำคัญมากขึ้น โดยเฉพาะอย่างยิ่ง การเปลี่ยนแปลงที่ยังไม่แน่นอนแต่จะส่งผลกระทบอย่างรุนแรงต่อการพัฒนาประเทศไทย ความไม่แน่นอนในอนาคตดังกล่าวส่งผลให้การวางเป้าหมายและแผนยุทธศาสตร์จำเป็นต้องคำนึงถึงการเปลี่ยนแปลงเหล่านี้อย่างลึกซึ้ง รอบคอบ และมองการณ์ไกลยิ่งขึ้น

ในปลาย พ.ศ. 2563 สถาบันนโยบายสาธารณะและการพัฒนา (IPPD) ร่วมกับ The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) ได้จัดทำโครงการรายงานเพื่อสำรวจปัจจัยเชิงยุทธศาสตร์ที่จะกระทบต่อการพัฒนาของประเทศไทยในระยะยาว โดย เน้นปัจจัยที่มีความไม่แน่นอนสูงและมีผลกระทบต่อสังคมสูง ซึ่งวัตถุประสงค์หลักของ IPPD สำหรับโครงการนี้คือการพัฒนาระบบการตรวจหาและสำรวจยุทธปัจจัยที่สำคัญสำหรับประเทศไทยในระยะยาว ทั้งนี้ ผลลัพธ์ของโครงการนี้คือการสำรวจปัจจัย 8 อย่างที่สำคัญสำหรับอนาคตของประเทศไทย ได้แก่

1. สังคมผู้สูงอายุ
2. เทคโนโลยีชีวภาพ
3. การเปลี่ยนแปลงในภูมิรัฐศาสตร์โลก
4. ความเสี่ยงจากภัยพิบัติ และความยั่งยืนของเมือง
5. การปฏิวัติอุตสาหกรรม 4.0 และทักษะในศตวรรษที่ 21
6. ความเหลื่อมล้ำ
7. การย้ายถิ่น และการเคลื่อนไหวของผู้คน
8. เทคโนโลยี การมีส่วนร่วม และการเมือง

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ติดตามรายงานเต็มฉบับภาษาไทยได้เร็ว ๆ นี้