World Bank, in cooperation with the Institute for Public Policy and Development (IPPD), organized “Thailand in the Time of COVID-19: Effective and Sustainable Economic and Social Responses” webinar on July 15, 2020. The webinar presented “Thailand Economic Monitor: Thailand in the time of COVID-19” report by the World Bank Group, which researched Thailand’s economic situation amidst the COVID-19 pandemic as well as hosting a forum to find a sustainable and effective solution for the country.

Figure 1: [text already in English] GDP growth in 2020 will decline sharply as a result of the unprecedented impact of the COVID- 19 global pandemic. Looking ahead, the important aspect to consider is now just how deep the contraction is in 2020, but also how quickly the economic output can get back to its pre-pandemic level. We expect this recovery to be gradual, taking at least two years for the economy to recover to its pre-COVID output, and extremely uncertain, with high downside risks stemming from the course of the pandemic and continued weakness in global economic activity, particularly from continued disruptions of global value chains.

Arvind Nair, senior economist, World Bank Group

The forum was opened by Arvind Nair, a Senior Economist from the World Bank Group, who presented Thailand’s economic position. The data shows that the COVID-19 pandemic left Thailand in an unstable economic situation as the rate of economic growth fell by 1.8 percent compared to 2019. Additionally, forecasts show that Thailand’s economy is more affected by the pandemic than other Asian-Pacific countries, due to the manufacturing sector being affected by the reduced global demand in the supply chain and the lack of international tourism, which brings in over 15 percent of Thailand’s GDP.

World Bank also estimates that over 8.3 million workers in the country will be negatively impacted by the economic contraction, which reinforces inequality and disproportionately affects vulnerable groups. The number of people living in poverty will increase, even with financial support from the state. The economic outlook can rapidly deteriorate and reach -5 percent in 2020. It will take Thailand at least two years to revive the economy back to a figure close to 2019’s output.

Figure 2: Thai people’s quality of life should be the focus for long-term policies after COVID-19. Policymakers need to address the current hardships faced by the population through safety net policies as well as educational and reskilling policies that will help all citizens.

Dr. Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, senior economist, World Bank Thailand

For the remedial policies, Dr. Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, a Senior Economist at World Bank Thailand, claimed that Thailand has utilized a variety of fiscal and monetary measures quickly, spending over 13 percent of the GDP. The government has implemented aid measures, such as 5,000 baht support checks and delayed debt collection for private firms. Dr. Kiatipong also emphasized the importance of safety net policies for vulnerable groups in Thai society through social welfare schemes. In his opinion, the state also needs to develop additional skills such as digital and e-commerce skills in the population, as well as support small and medium businesses (SMEs) to adapt to the rapidly changing world, especially in the industrial sector.

Figure 3: With the COVID-19 pandemic, Thailand needs to review and revise our current economic model. Will we continue using the old model that relies on limited engines and can carry only a small group of people? Or will we change to use a multiple-engine machine that can effectively utilize resources and carry more people? We need to create Thailand’s economic engine that can help create prosperity and a better standard of living for Thai people.

Dr. Anuk Serechetapongse, developmental economist, UNDP

Dr. Anuk Serechetapongse, a Developmental Economist from UNDP, compared the economic mechanisms as an automobile with defunct components. Many vulnerable groups have been severely affected by the economic problems. The UN study found that poverty among workers is increasing at every income level. Dr. Anuk also mentions the gender disparity as women have a 10 percent higher risk of unemployment than men. First jobbers have a 4.2 percent higher likelihood of becoming unemployed. Businesses are not exempt from the crisis, especially SMEs that might lose of over 60 percent of their revenue and over 80 percent of the agricultural sector will lose revenue.

Figure 4: [text already in English] Information and communications technology (ICT) can be used for providing support during COVID- 19 pandemic. Thailand has a strong ICT system that could facilitate the response to the pandemic. Going forward, Thailand needs to build interoperable social registries to ensure effective coverage of the most in need and facilitate rapid scale up of social protection programs. Thailand would be able to utilize those registries during future crisis.

Francesca Lamannna, senior social protection economist, World Bank Group

For the governmental support in other countries, Francesca Lamannna, a Senior Social Protection Economist from the World Bank Group, gave examples of countries with financial support policies similar to Thailand. The Philippines has set up emergency aid to 18 million households or around 80 percent of their population. Indonesia has provided three months of financial support and extended assistance to those living outside Jakarta. Brazil also provided assistance for households through a public registration system, which was utilized for disease control as well. Additionally, Lamannna noted that governments can benefit from widespread data collection and a robust IT system for social safety net programs.

Figure 5: If a second wave of COVID-19 cases triggers another lockdown and financial slowdown, we must reassess the sustainability guidelines of keeping public debt under 60 percent of the GDP. Currently, many countries’ debt exceed this figure. If Thailand relaxes the rules for a crisis of this magnitude, we will have increased financial funds to weather the crisis. However, if the debt ceiling is not raised, it will be likely that we will not have enough money.

Dr. Don Nakornthab, Senior Director, Macroeconomics Department, Bank of Thailand

Dr. Don Nakornthab, Senior Director, Macroeconomics Department at the Bank of Thailand, maintained that the policies needed to solve our economic problems require cooperation from multiple sectors. The Bank of Thailand has implemented monetary policies such as enhancing liquidity for stakeholders, adjusting interest rates to reduce outstanding debt, increasing loans to SMEs, and stabilizing financial institutions.

Figure 6: We should not view the options of saving lives or reopening the economy as a dilemma, as measures and policy in response to COVID-19 must aim at both preserving lives and restoring the economy.

Dr. Sorapop Kiatpongsan, Director, Institute for Public Policy and Development (IPPD)

One of the biggest questions of this forum is the reconciliation between saving lives and maintaining the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Dr. Sorapop Kiatpongsan, Director of the Institute for Public Policy and Development (IPPD), argued against the idea that the economy and people’s lives are two roads that cannot converge. Instead, he asserted that it should be seen as a deeply intertwined issue that needs to be addressed together to create effective policies. He also raised the question of what can we learn from this pandemic? How will we prepare for the next outbreak? The speaker concluded that the best way forward is to gather information and data to support effective policy design in an uncertain future.

• Futures studies is a very prominent field in Finland and Singapore, albeit in different ways.

• In Thailand, futures studies are a new field that needs to be widely publicized. More information can be accessed through the e-book “Futures Studies” linked here: https://www.tsri.or.th/th/knowledge/publication

Currently, the global community is facing highly uncertain changes. At the moment, the most apparent and pressing change of all is the COVID-19 global pandemic that has completely transformed society as we know it, accompanied by a new way of living that has people wearing face masks and carrying out social distancing. This is an example of an unexpected event that has caught society unaware.

Therefore, it is crucial that we, as a society, are prepared to deal with unexpected scenarios. As members of the global community, we all need to be able to understand the changes, make connections between factors, build knowledge and develop tools that can help us understand and manage the future through futures studies or futurology. The field of futures studies is a way to overcome the boundaries of traditional knowledge structures and engage in an interdisciplinary and holistic study. It utilizes different disciplines – philosophy, methodology, concepts, and theories of changes – to create a unified system based on logical knowledge and imagination.

For these reasons, futures studies are crucial for stakeholders and policymakers when forecasting the futures and designing the path forward for public policy after the COVID-19 pandemic.

On June 17, 2020, the Institute for Public Policy and Development (IPPD) and Thailand Science Research and Innovation (TSRI) hosted the special webinar “Utilizing Futures Studies in the Transforming World” to serve as a forum for discussion and knowledge exchange about futures studies. Futures studies are a way to foresee the futures through using various theories and interdisciplinary knowledge. Additionally, there is the launch of the “Futures Studies” book, which was synthesized from “A Review of the State of Knowledge in Futures Studies” research project that was supported by TSRI.

What are Futures Studies?

As the head of the research project, Assoc. Prof. Apiwat Ratanawaraha, Ph.D., from Faculty of Architecture, Chulalongkorn University, gave the overview of futures studies as a field that focuses on creating theories, principles, and methods of understanding and navigating the futures. Foresight is a basic tool that can develop and evolve with new knowledge and societal conditions.

Figure 1: The inequality to the recognized and access futures is the origin of many social problems. For a long time, social activists have been increasing access and encouraging everyone to imagine futures. The public’s involvement in the foresight process is crucial if we do not want a repeat of the predictable and limited forecasts done previously by forecasters and technocrats.

ASSOC. PROF. APIWAT RATANAWARAHA (PH.D.), Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Architecture, Chulalongkorn University

Futures studies became a coherent study during World War 1, when military needed to strategize and plan futures to win against their enemies. The brainstorming processes created a way to systematically forecast the future through accurate data.

In its conception, futures studies was based on forecasts and empirical evidence. Soon, the knowledge from other fields such as economics and social sciences were also integrated into the processes. The discipline further evolved, by developing broader, critical methodologies that take into account the environment and the evolution of mankind.

Recently, it is increasingly debated among futurists argued that foresight should not be limited to expert opinions and it should involve the general public. Similarly, foresight should not simply be regarded as part of sociology, but should be adaptable to other disciplines as well. And as seen in many countries, foresight is now integrating in big data, machine learning and artificial intelligence into its process.

Why do we need futures studies?

Assoc. Prof. Chanathip Pharino, Ph.D., Director of Future Strategy and Initiative Program Division, TSRI, revealed that the “Futures Studies” book was written because TRSI realized the importance of futures studies. It is a discipline that can influence many research and development programs that guide the formulation of public policy.

More importantly, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Chanathip asserted that it was a necessity to make futures studies education more accessible to the general public. Nowadays, the methodology of futures studies is still limited to academic circles, and she hopes that the research will help develop “human capital” in this field of study. This is achieved to the publication of “Futures Studies” book and university course on the subject.

Figure 2: It is necessary to develop and promote futures studies to the general public to understand and access. Futures studies has been developed for a long time but it is still known in limited circles, thus it should be promoted to a wider audience. Our goals is to develop the science of futures studies and future research so it can be put to good use.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Chanathip Pharino, Director of Future Strategy and Initiative Program Division, TSRI

Professor Mingsarn Kaosa-ard, Ph.D., the Director of Public Policy Studies Institute Foundation (PPSI) and project leader for “Khon Thai 4.0”, described the connection between the project and futures studies as a focus “on the integration and finding differences which foster innovation in society, which aligns with Futures studies approach of using many fields of studies together”. The project also employed new tools, such as big data and artificial intelligence.

Figure 3: Our national strategy is based on one future, a singular future imagined by a small group of people. Would the public agree with the forecasted future? Alongside the lack of data support, this is a major issue of our public policy strategies. The new generation of policymakers must utilize the data and raise the awareness.

Professor Mingsarn Kaosa-ard, Ph.D., the Director of Public Policy Studies Institute Foundation (PPSI)

She believes that the public should be encouraged to be involved in forecasting the nation’s futures. From her experience, citizens from all provinces are interested in forecasting their futures and are prepared to face the technological changes. Future planning needs more data and information to guide and create accurate, comprehensive and effective developments.

Finland and Singapore: Outstanding Users of Futures studies

Assoc. Prof. Apiwat mentions Finland and Singapore as countries with outstanding futures studies expertise. In both countries, the governments place particular importance in forecasting and futures studies, and have established organizations charged with the objective of planning the national strategy.

Finland uses a process that emphasizes checks and balances through specialized organizations for futures studies. The organizations influence legislative, executive, academic, and social institutions. Specialized institutions counterbalance each other’s influences, while futures studies communities flourish. It can also be said that Finland’s public play an important role in the futures studies.

In contrast, Singapore’s community of futures studies is still limited to the academic circles, and the leading influences in the field are primarily governmental scholars. The field is centralized under government organizations. The centralized nature of the field creates top-down strategies and public policies.

At a conference organized by the Centre for Strategic Futures, the Prime minister’s Office, Singapore, Dr. Sorapop Kiatpongsan, Director of the Institute of Public Policy and Development (IPPD), had the opportunity to converse with leading thinkers of futures studies from other countries. The three main topics discussed were geopolitics, security, and society. The issues facing foresight as a discipline, as concluded by experts, are related to the idea that the public do not view futures studies as urgent, and so, it is not as valued. The task, therefore, is to make long-term future strategies relatable and connected to the decisions being made today.

Figure 4: Futures Studies is not only the concern of individual researchers in the field, it is a matter of interdisciplinary studies that focus on the mindset and process over the finished report. To successfully implement future-driven public policy, we need to encourage future-oriented thinking in stakeholders.

Dr. Sorapop Kiatpongsan, Director of the Institute of Public Policy and Development (IPPD)

Dr. Sorapop also pointed out that futures studies are a matter of mindset and processes. For futures studies to succeed, stakeholders must become involved as the field should not be limited to specialized organizations.

Dr. Sorapop regards futures studies as an interdisciplinary field that should not be bound to the specialists in closed meetings.

Thai futures studies and the future of Thailand

When returning to the subject of Thailand, Assoc. Prof. Apiwat says that futures studies is still a young discipline in the country. Most of the analyses made focus on the short and mid-range predictions (5-10 years) and often lack analysis of structural changes. In turn, the results from Thai futures studies are underutilized as people do not trust in the process. To address these limitations, futures studies theories should also be introduced in the analyses to make results more reliable.

Professor Mingsarn concluded that futures planning should be open to everyone, especially the newer generation who should play an important role.

“Thailand’s policy making is based on one future, a singular future envisioned by a small group of people. The question is now whether others agree with this vision. This is a major issue for public policy, alongside the limited use of data. Thus, it is crucial for the newer generation of policymakers to play an important role in utilizing data and knowledge in futures studies.”

If you are interested in learning more about futures Studies, the researchers have published the book “Futures Studies” to disseminate knowledge and information about this field of study. The e-book can be downloaded for free at https://www.tsri.or.th/th/knowledge/publication, while the report from the Foresight Conference 2019: Society 4.0 can be downloaded from https://www.csf.gov.sg/files/media-centre/FC2019-external-report.pdf.

• Foresight is an important tool for designing public policy that is future-fit in a constantly changing world.
• The Delphi method is one of the foresight tools that is used for forecasting technological trends, whose key component is a diverse expert network.

It is undeniable that we are now living in a extremely volatile world that is driven by a multitude of factors, from political conflicts and international trade wars to extreme weather events, rapid technological advances, and the global spread of COVID-19. These factors each play a fundamental role in shaking the foundations of the economic systems and global society. With the increasing momentum of change, it is crucial that we are prepared for the ensuing whiplash.

Nonetheless, preparedness does not simply mean reactive measures. We need to employ proactive measures with careful planning that can mitigate the negative impacts caused by the uncertainties of the future. It is necessary for the government to use foresight in planning and designing public policies, including the evaluation of impending trends that may impact society. Lastly, as public policy is crucial to improving the population’s quality of life and the overall development of the country, it should not be based solely on past events without any regard for the future, but instead account for the possible futures.

By utilizing foresight tools in public policy design, the government can predict opportunities and challenges that may occur in the future and create new policies based on the forecasts. It can also test the effectiveness of the policies against possible scenarios. Thus, foresight tools can increase a country’s capabilities and preparedness for the future. Nowadays, foresight is considered important for designing future-fit public policies in many countries. In Singapore, the government has established a forecast organization as part of the Prime Minister’s Office. The organization is involved in analyzing trends, assessing risks, and designing the direction of Singapore’s public policy. By employing these methods, Singapore is ranked as a country with high capability to prepare for and cope with crisis.

Foresight tools

Unlike forecast that predicts the future based on past and present events, foresight is the examination of possible futures through critical thinking and creativity. There are many methods of conducting foresight, including scenario planning, visioning, and Delphi method. Delphi is one of the more well-known tools of foresight, which is used to analyze trends that may not have clear data-based evidence, such as technological development trends, technology use trends, and morality and value trends in society.

The Delphi Method was developed by Olaf Helmer and Normal Dalkey, from The RAND Corporation. The method was first proposed in the 1962 article “An experimental application of the Delphi method to the use of experts.” Since then, the method has evolved and adapted for conducting foresight for use in other countries including Japan, Germany, South Korea, and in some countries in the European Union – as a tool to analyze the changing national trends of science and technology.

The main feature of the Delphi method is in the multiple rounds of collecting experts’ opinion, through at least two rounds of surveys. The first round responses are usually analyzed as a whole and returned to the experts, who can review other experts’ opinions anonymously. Following this feedback, the experts are once again invited to submit their response for the second round. As the experts are given the chance to consider their answers more than once and interact with other opinions, it can be said that Delphi is valuable and reliable method.

The RAND corporation institute has a developed ExpertLens, a tool based on the Delphi method. The tool consists of four rounds altogether: 1. idea generation, 2. assessment, 3. feedback & discussion, and 4. reassessment.

The strengths of the Delphi method lies in its systematic repetition, controlled feedback and anonymity of the experts. Therefore, the experts have the freedom to express their personal opinions and not be swayed by the majority or other pressures presented in group settings. At the same time, each expert can respond to the surveys in their own time, without the need to meet, reducing issues of coordination.

However, the limitations of the Delphi method is in the reliance on the experiences of the experts within the network. The experts are expected to make a thorough and give their carefully considered opinions, so the results can be used to accurately and effectively plan for future public policies.

Currently, the Institute of Public Policy and Development (IPPD)’s Foresight & Futures Lab (FFL) is researching and developing the Delphi method to serve as a tool in forecasting and analyzing future trends, alongside creating an expert network from diverse fields. The network will be a space for the specialists to exchange views and form a joint vision for Thailand’s future. The specialists will be involved in sustainable long-term development and public policy design, and eventually changing the policy design and supporting our country’s development in the future.

To create a transparent process that embraces new ideas, Foresight & Futures Lab (FFL) invite readers to nominate specialists who are knowledgeable about “future technological trends of Thailand” to participate in the IPPD Delphi network and plan Thailand’s future. The nominations can be submitted through the nomination form until June 28, 2020. If you have any questions or need to contact us directly, you can reach us at ffl@ippd.or.th.